The party of old white men is anything but after Tuesday’s highly contested election. As the dust settles, uncertain of who will occupy the White House for the next 4-years, one thing is sure: Trump made significant inroads into minority communities.
Contrary to what the mainstream media barked for four long years, Trump’s rallying against illegal immigration, left-wing riots, the outsourcing of jobs to China, and his support for tax cuts, deregulation, and support for the police paid off electorally among minority voters. But not just one or two demographics. Trump earned a larger share of the vote and closed the voting gap with every racial and gendered group except white men.
Based on NBC exit polls from 2016 and 2020, Trump’s share of the white vote remained the same at 57%. However, the incumbent’s share of the black vote jumped from 8% to 12%. His share of the Hispanic and Asian vote increased by a similar amount from 28% to 32%, and 27% to 31%, respectively.
In conjunction with his increased voter share, the gap between Trump and Biden with respect to each racial group is lower than the gap between Trump and Clinton in 2016. Well, all but white Americans. Trump’s vote surplus among white Americans dropped by 5 percentage points from a 20% lead over Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 15% against Joe Biden. That decrease in support among white Americans, because they made up 65% of Tuesday’s voting block, likely explains why Trump might lose his reelection bid.
The GOP is far from winning a majority among any non-white group, but Trump’s support is far more diverse than it was four years ago.
Critics could explain the increased support for President Trump by pointing to an equal or greater increase support in support for Joe Biden, but when we crunch the numbers, that narrative falls apart.
When Trump’s voters gender is accounted for, the incumbent’s improvements become even more confusing. Trump walked away with a greater percentage of female voters, regardless of race, while his support among men actually decreased from 52% to 49%. While his share of white voters decreased EoE, the drop was only prevalent among white men. Trump’s share of the white woman vote, a demographic many pundits wrote off as lost cause, increased from 53% to 55%.
Though his total support among men decreased, Trump made significant gains among black and Latino men, with 1 in 5 black men and 1 in 3 Latino men supporting him. Both represent significant improvements among two heavily democratic groups.
Similarly, the gap between Trump and Biden’s share of each demographic, when accounting for gender, shrank relative to Trump and Clinton gap in 2016. Against Clinton, Trump pulled away with an 11 percentage point lead over his democratic challenger. Against Biden, Trump still won the male vote, but by a narrow 1%.
His drop in the white male vote is even more horrifying. In 2016, Trump led Clinton by 31-points, but Biden chopped that in half, leaving Trump with an 18-point advantage.That massive support among white males, the second largest voter demographic, enabled Republicans to win elections despite massive deficits among the smaller black and hispanic voters.
Trump’s declining support among white men was bolstered by increasing support among white women, black men, black women, latino men, and latina women. It was truly his most diverse voting block to date. If Republicans can find a way to maintain their leads in white voters while bumping their share of the black and hispanic vote to even 30% and 40%, respectively, the 2024 election would be a blowout.
After years of hearing how racist and sexist Trump was from the mainstream media, his unexpected shift in support tears down a long running narrative used by many Democrats.
Though we’re still unsure of who’ll occupy 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue come January, the Republican Party’s long term electability can be counted among the victors. Long feared by some Republican strategists, America’s shifting racial makeup does not mean the death of the GOP. Trump’s progress with winning the black and hispanic vote offers a golden opportunity for future nominees to expand their base, and hope for a 2024 Red Wave. And it’s terrifying Democrats.